Naples Florida Real Estate Blog

New estimate slows Colliers growth rate to 64 percent

By LESLIE WILLIAMS

Saturday, June 14, 2008

Collier County is changing the way it plans for the future.

A new estimate for Collier’s population into the future shows a slower growth rate than previously anticipated, possibly reducing the need to expand certain types of projects for roads and utilities.

Rather than the 77 percent growth anticipated by Collier County government during the next 22 years, the county’s new population model calls for 64 percent growth in the county’s permanent population through 2030.

Based on a recent study, levels of service for everything from transportation to utilities will be set based on permanent population numbers, plus a 20 percent increase to account for part-time residents and visitors.

Collier commissioners unanimously accepted the model at a recent meeting with little discussion, other than to verify that the Collier County Planning Commission would have a chance to reconsider the study in June or July. That’s when more specific information is expected on the actual numbers for needed services, such as wastewater treatment and community park use.

As the new model is put into practice, county staff will determine whether to realign services or growth plans to account for the new numbers.

The new population numbers are based on projections provided by the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research, which are used outside of census years.

According to Collier County records, the Florida Department of Community Affairs informed county government that the previous population methodology employed by county staff was “not a professionally acceptable population methodology.”

According to numbers from the Bureau of Economic and Business Research, the 2007 permanent population of Collier County was 333,858, equating to a seasonal population of 406,882 with the 20 percent adjustment.

That permanent population figure is 1.5 percent lower than reported by county staff in the 2007 Annual Update and Inventory Report, when it was listed as 339,068.

The 20 percent figure for seasonal population was obtained based on facts that the seasonal population rate for 2000 was 23.8 percent over the permanent population.

However, a memo from Planning Commission Director Randy Cohen reasoned that seasonal homes are never 100 percent occupied at a given time. Instead, the occupancy of those seasonal units is assumed to be about 85 percent, bringing the seasonal increase to a little more than 20 percent.

Other scenarios have the seasonal population adding anywhere between 17 and 19 percent to the permanent population, but as the memo states, “Staff was provided direction by (commissioners) to provide for the worst case scenario with regard to public utilities.”

The new estimates call for slightly more modest growth than was predicted in the 2007 Annual Update and Inventory Report, with permanent population in 2030 predicted at 548,900, an 8.3 percent reduction from the 598,500 residents anticipated.

In the near-term, the 2010 permanent population is anticipated at 353,900, 6.7 percent less residents than the 379,200 listed in the 2007 report.

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Collier County permanent population* growth predictions

2007 333,858

2010 353,900

2015 406,300

2020 455,300

2025 503,300

2030 548,900

2025 591,200

* To determine seasonal population, the county will add 20 percent to each year’s permanent population

Source: Collier County records, UF Bureau of Economic and Business Research

Foreclosure restricts future home financing

WASHINGTON – May 28, 2008 – Homeowners going through foreclosure today may have to wait five years before they are able to get financing for a home again.

That’s according to new federal guidelines from the Federal National Mortgage Association and the Federal Home Mortgage Corp., otherwise known as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

And after those five years, a borrower would have to have a Fair Isaac Corp. (FICO) credit score of 680 and put 10 percent down, said Leslie Swart, managing partner and senior loan officer at Blue Skye Lending in Lakewood Ranch.

A FICO score ranges from 300 to 850 points and factors in things like length of credit history, how timely a person is in paying his or her bills and how much an individual has in debt versus available credit, according to Bankrate.com. About 27 percent of the nation falls into the 750-799 scoring range, according to FICO. The smallest category 2 percent – has scores of 499 or less.

“Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, they’re actually tightening up those restrictions that much more,” Swart said. “The pendulum has swung to the other extreme.”

The move has come about as a result of soaring foreclosures in the nation, mostly linked to subprime mortgages that have left the financial sector in disarray.

Banks and lenders, many of which have written down billions of dollars in bad loans, are less willing to take risk in the subprime aftermath. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the largest purchases of loans sold by banks and lenders on the secondary market.

Traditional mortgage companies also are looking at credit qualifications with more scrutiny, Swart said.

“What’s interesting is, it used to be we could say anything (credit score) over 700 or 720, you’re golden,” Swart said. “But some lenders are pricing their (annual percentage) rates differently at higher FICO levels. You can still get financing in the high 600s, but your rates are better if you’re 720 or plus.”

Bottom line: Homeowners should do everything they can to avoid foreclosure, either through renegotiating the loan with the bank or arranging a short sale of the property.

“Foreclosure and bankruptcy will affect your credit in a real negative manner,” said Mike Rahn, production manager with CNL Bank in Sarasota. “A short sale will affect it less than that.”

A short sale involves the bank agreeing to let the borrower sell the property for less than what he or she owes on the mortgage. The bank ends up saddled with the loss on the mortgage.

“A seller could negotiate a short sale with the bank and it could have little or no impact on their credit,” Rahn said.

Most banks evaluate whether to allow a short sale on a case-by-case basis, he adds.

Manatee County court records suggest banks may be more willing to cooperate with borrowers as the foreclosure fallout continues.

Out of 2,528 foreclosure suits filed in 2007, 328 – or roughly 13 percent – were dismissed, suggesting borrowers were able to make repayment or short sale arrangements with lenders.

The worst thing you can do is merely walk away from a home being foreclosed on, said Tracey Starrett, an attorney with the Law Offices of Paul A. Blucher in Bradenton.

Doing so doesn’t necessarily let one off the hook for his or her obligations to the lender, she said.

“A lot of times,” Starrett said, “if the bank decides that they’re not going to be satisfied with just getting the property back and they want to sue on the note as well because there’s a deficiency, meaning you’re upside down, they can file a summary judgment for a deficiency and come after you for that. So a lot of times, a foreclosure may lead to bankruptcy.

“Your credit score takes the biggest hit with bankruptcy. Foreclosure is second. A short sale is a lesser hit.”

A bank’s decision to pursue a deficiency judgment is also typically made case by case, said John Hanlon, assistant vice president of commercial lending with Community Bank in Bradenton.

“If a borrower has other potential assets or a way to repay and the bank’s going to suffer a loss, we want to get back as much as we can,” Hanlon said. “I think a lot of banks are trying to work things out with the borrower. The bank doesn’t want to take the property back, obviously.”

Copyright © 2008 The Bradenton Herald, Fla., Brian Neill and Melissa Followell. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.

But sellers have at least returned to the bargaining table. If you are in the market for a home, it is time, cautiously, to take a look and, maybe, see if you can play, "Let's Make A Deal."

NAR: Worst is over – existing-home sales to trend up in 2008

WASHINGTON – Dec. 11, 2007 – Existing-home sales are projected to trend up in 2008, with pending home sales showing a slight near-term rise, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). However, a recovery for new-home sales is unlikely before 2009.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the worst part of the credit crunch has already worked its way through the data. “The unusual mortgage disruptions that peaked in August were clearly seen in lower home sales that were finalized in September and October, so the market was underperforming,” he says. “Now that mortgage conditions have improved, some postponed activity should turn up in existing-home sales over the next couple of months, and I expect sales at fairly stable to slightly higher levels.”

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in October, increased 0.6 percent to an index of 87.2 from an upwardly revised reading of 86.7 in September. It was the second consecutive monthly gain, but still 18.4 percent below the October 2006 index of 106.8. “The broad trend over the coming year will be a gradual rise in existing-home sales, but because sales are exceptionally low in the final months of 2007, total sales for 2008 will be only modestly higher than 2007,” Yun says.

The PHSI in the Northeast jumped 16.0 percent in October to 80.6 but is 11.1 percent below a year ago. In the West, the index rose 8.4 percent to 87.3 but is 16.9 percent lower than October 2006. The index in the Midwest slipped 1.4 percent in October to 85.5 and is 11.7 percent below a year ago. In the South, the index dropped 7.8 percent in October to 91.6 and is 25.3 percent below October 2006.

“The improvement in the Northeast reaffirms a trend apparent for some months now that shows signs of recovery, noteworthy because that was the first region to slump, and the gain in the West indicates some easing of interest rates for jumbo loans,” Yun says. “Lawmakers need to understand that raising the loan limits on FHA and GSE-backed conventional loans will markedly improve mortgage availability.”

Existing-home sales are likely to total 5.67 million this year, the fifth highest on record, rising to 5.70 million in 2008, in contrast with 6.48 million in 2006. Existing-home prices should be down 1.9 percent to a median of $217,600 for all of 2007, and then rise 0.3 percent to $218,300 in 2008.

“Home price growth in the vast affordable midsection of America will help raise the national median existing-home price slightly in 2008. I then expect price appreciation to return to more normal patterns in 2009, perhaps rising one or two percentage points above the rate of inflation,” Yun says.

“Even with a modest decline in the national aggregate price this year, it’s important to keep in mind that nearly two-thirds of the metro areas in the U.S. are showing price increases,” he said. “The apparent disparity results from fewer sales in high-cost markets, so a change in the mix of sales is dragging down the national median home price.”

Areas showing healthy price gains include disparate markets such as Gary-Hammond, Ind.; Binghamton, N.Y.; Corpus Christi, Texas; and Spokane, Wash. “We can’t emphasis enough how much local conditions vary, even within a given area, so it’s important for consumers to make decisions based on local market conditions.”

New-home sales are forecast at 788,000 this year and 693,000 in 2008, down from 1.05 million in 2006; no sustained improvement is seen for new homes until 2009. Because builders have correctly adjusted production, housing starts, including multifamily units, will probably total 1.36 million this year and 1.16 million in 2008, down from 1.80 million last year. The median new-home price is projected to drop 3.0 percent to $239,100 for 2007, and then decline another 0.2 percent to $236,600 in 2008.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is estimated to rise slowly to the 6.4 percent range by the end of 2008, with additional cuts in the Fed funds rate lowering short-term interest rates.

Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) should be 2.1 percent in 2007, down from a 2.9 percent growth rate last year; GDP growth is forecast to improve to 2.4 percent in 2008.

The unemployment rate is likely to average 4.6 percent for 2007, unchanged from last year, but rise to 5.0 percent in 2008. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, will probably be 2.8 percent this year and 2.7 percent in 2008, down from 3.2 percent in 2006. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is estimated to grow 3.1 percent this year, the same as in 2006, and then grow 2.2 percent next year.

© 2007 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 

Big Plans - 22,000 Acre Big Cypress

Wednesday, September 27, 2006

In the 1920s, New York advertising magnate Barron Gift Collier began carving civilization out of a wilderness that would become Collier County. Some 80 years later, the company that traces its roots to that pioneer is at it again, with plans to found a new town, dubbed Big Cypress, east of Golden Gate Estates.

Collier Enterprises wants to build some 25,000 homes in a new town and in a scattering of smaller villages and hamlets on 8,000 acres of farmland surrounded by 14,000 acres of preserve. The project would take 25 to 30 years to build. Work won’t get started until at least 2010, Collier Enterprises CEO Tom Flood said.

Big Cypress, along with its neighbor, Ave Maria University and its companion town, are products of a landmark 2002 growth plan that requires landowners to preserve and restore land to earn credits for development.

The 22,000-acre Big Cypress district is more than 34 square miles — about twice the size of the city of Naples — and represents an unprecedented blank slate to plan for growth in Collier County.

The company is planning public workshops to get community input on the Big Cypress plans after a kickoff event in late October. Details still are being planned.

The workshops would focus on land conservation, agriculture, parks, schools, economic development, roads and housing, according to the company.

Flood said the goal of the company’s planning is to make Big Cypress a self-sustaining town that fits with the rural character of eastern Collier County.

“We don’t see this as a bedroom community of Naples,” Flood said. “We see this as a place for people to live and work.”

The center of the town would be built in the middle of a loop created by a realignment of Oil Well Road and an extension of Randall Boulevard. Immokalee Road and Golden Gate Boulevard also would provide access to Big Cypress.

Plans don’t include hooking up the Vanderbilt Beach Road extension to Big Cypress. Some Golden Gate Estates residents had blamed the need for the controversial extension on the Collier company plans.

Flood said the extension is “not driving our thinking at all” and that it would be “fine with him” if the extension never hooks up to Big Cypress.

Plans propose a “conceptual alternative interchange” at Interstate 75 (Alligator Alley) with a new road that would meander north, through Big Cypress to Immokalee Road.

The conceptual alternate location is about two miles east of the spot of a proposed I-75 interchange at Everglades Boulevard, which would have to be widened to six lanes, putting it through residents’ yards and driveways, Flood said.

The conceptual road through Big Cypress would wind past six villages, each with up to 1,000 acres. Plans also show two hamlets, each with up to 100 acres.

Flood said the company wants to create a 23-mile walking trail that would connect the villages and lend a rural twist to the project.

Besides the 14,000 acres of preserve within the district boundaries, Collier Enterprises also will have to preserve 13,000 acres beyond the new town to earn enough development credits under the 2002 growth plan.

Collier County Audubon Society policy advocate Brad Cornell said the Big Cypress plans still must overcome questions about size and compatibility with surrounding land, including habitat for the endangered Florida habitat and woodstork.

“They (the Big Cypress plans) are big; they’re really big,” Cornell said. “In every respect it’s big, and there’s a lot of questions left unanswered in my mind.”

For example, Cornell said he wants to know more about how the company will mitigate the effects of its proposed interchange at I-75.

Cornell said the mitigation should involve buying up panther habitat in Golden Gate Estates between North Belle Meade and the Florida Panther National Wildlife Refuge.

Another question is where Collier Enterprises will set aside the additional 13,000 acres it needs to earn development credits und